Agenda

Author: Prof. Dr. Ramazan Gözen

Foreign Ministers of the three countries, Ahmet Davutoğlu, Celso Amorim and Menucehr Mottakki, signed the agreement on 17 May 2010 in Tehran. Leaders of the three countries, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, President Lula Da Silva and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were also present at the signing ceremony. The atmosphere at the signing ceremony and especially Iran accepting a swap agreement were seen as a diplomatic success by many countries. However, this agreement doesn't mean that the problems on Iran's nuclear program have come to an end. Some countries spoke in favor of the agreement while Permanent Members of the UN Security Council delivered mixed reactions. The US submitting a sanctions resolution to the UN Security Council despite the agreement, cast doubts on the applicability of the agreement.

One has to accept first and foremost that the signed agreement is a very important step on reaching a solution to the problem from a peaceful manner. As is known, the Western countries that go by the name 5+1, and Iran had been holding talks to eng the enrichment program of Iran aimed at producing nuclear weapons. During the last meeting held on October 1st 2009 at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Geneva, the 5+1 countries had proposed that they give Iran 20% enriched uranium in return for the country handing over its 3.5% low level enriched uranium. In line with this offer, this exchange would take place through Russia or France's mediation.

Iran, along with accepting this offer in principle, asked that the exchange take place on Iranian land and guarantees be given. This condition actually showed that Iran did not trust the west. Western countries rejected the Iranian demands, claiming that she was trying to win some time. This is where the diplomatic process came to a standstill.

During this process, 5+1 countries, especially the USA, started working for harsher sanctions to be applied on Iran. It was known that the US was planning to submit a new resolution for sanctions in the United Nations Security Council. There are suggestions that China fully rejected and Russia partially rejected the resolution previously, but the US managed to overcome these barriers. This means that should a deal not be reached with Iran on an exchange, the chances of sanctions are very high.

This situation means that the regional and international agenda might be under stress in the coming months. There are many countries which would be displeased with the problems snowballing into a crisis and heavy sanctions be applied on Iran. One such country is Turkey. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, Turkey is the country to be the most affected from embargos on Iran or another country in the region. Economic, military and political tensions in the region have the potential to push the entire region, including Turkey, into a massive chaos.

Secondly, Turkey wants all countries to be treated fairly when it comes to nuclear matters. She believes that neither Iran, nor any other country, including Israel and many Western powers, have nuclear weapons. She also believes that all countries have the right to benefit from peaceful uses of nuclear energy. As a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Turkey works to establish peace and stability in the region and in the world. Turkey is of course not alone in this struggle. As can be seen from the exchange agreement, another non-permanent member, Brazil also wants a diplomatic solution.

There are two important points in the signed agreement on the matter. Firstly, Iran has accepted to hand over 3.5% low enriched uranium to Turkey in a month, and get 120 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium from the West in order for peaceful use in her nuclear reactors. This exchange is expected to end the nuclear arms capacity of Iran. This in turn means that tension between the West and Iran can finally end and talks can continue. The second part of the agreement is more important: The applicability of the exchange period, in other words the applicability of the agreement is conditional on the West also accepting the agreement.

Although the Western countries reacted positively to the swap agreement in principle, they showed mixed approaches to its application. The US, France, UK and the EU accepted the agreement as a positive effort but said it would not bring any solution, and therefore supported the sanctions resolution. Israel went further to not even recognize the agreement and said Turkey and Brazil had been fooled by Iran. On the other hand, Russia and China said the agreement should be taken seriously but showed hesitation on the sanctions resolution.

In conclusion, the exchange agreement is a serious drive in trying to end the problem of the ages. The agreement, with the articles aside, calls on the entire world, especially the West. It is possible to interpret this call like this: All international problems including Iran's nuclear program, should be solved before they turn into crises; the mistake US made in Iraq should not be repeated; dialogue should be given the top priority to establish security and peace in the Middle East; and finally this chance where Iran is willing to negotiate on her nuclear program, should not be missed.