Agenda

Author: Prof. Dr. Ramazan Gözen

Two important summits were held in Canada on June 26 and 27, 2010. One in the capital Toronto and the other in Huntsville. One of these was the G-8 summit, which brought together the leaders of the world's most industrialized countries. The other was the G-20 meeting, which represented the countries accounting for 90 percent of the world's total gross national product. The major topic concentrated on at the two meetings was how global economy could be revitalized and put on track again, though talks were also held on world politics.

Turkey, member of the G-20 group, was represented at the summit by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. On the sidelines of the summit, Prime Minister Erdoğan had talks with the British and Italian Prime Ministers and the Presidents of the US and Russia. The most critical of these meetings was undoubtedly the one Erdoğan had with US President Obama.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State Ali Babacan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and Turkey's Ambassador to the US Namık Tan were also in attendance at the Erdoğan-Obama meeting. As it was the first meeting held after last month's discord between the two countries, it was considered crucial and its outcome was awaited curiously.

Decisions were made and talks were held in both meetings concerning Turkey closely. How the world could edge its way out of the financial downturn and what measures could be taken by individual countries were taken up. Recommendations were made to slash national budget deficits to ensure a sustainable economic growth and avert economic risks, to have big economies such as China exercise flexibility in their foreign currency policies to ensure stability in the supply and demand balance and to get banks to increase their tax rates. There is no doubt all these decisions will have a bearing on Turkey's economy. However, as Turkish economy is widely acknowledged to have suffered relatively less from the global economic downturn than the other countries, Turkey can be said to be in a more comfortable position.

Turkey's latest political initiatives and the developments which emerged of late in Turkey-US -Israel relations made these two summits more important for Turkey. A most favorable development in this context was that two views were put forth at the G-8 meetings regarding Turkey's initiatives. The final communiqué showed that the G-8 countries are in favor of diplomacy and peace negotiations about Iran's nuclear programme being continued. This view spelled support for Turkey's Iran policy despite the resolution passed by UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran. Turkey wants the Iran issue resolved through diplomacy and dialogue. That is why Turkey in conjunction with Brazil signed a nuclear fuel swap agreement with Iran.

The decision taken at the G-8 summit is a recommendation for Turkey's policy in this respect to be maintained. We may predict that Turkey will continue in the forthcoming term to pursue an active foreign policy to find a solution to this problem. However, Turkey cannot be expected to impose any sanctions against Iran as it voted against the sanctions resolution at the UN Security Council.

Another decision taken at the G-8 summit is on trying to find a solution to the Israel-Palestine issue. It was made clear that it is imperative Israel lift its blockade of the Gaza strip and start peace negotiations with the Palestinian administration. These demands jibe with Turkey’s policy anyway. The essence of Turkey's Palestine policy is comprised of these demands. The latest humanitarian aid initiative and the stance Turkey assumed with regard to it were focused on these demands.

However, the Israeli raid on one of the vessels of the aid flotilla and the killing of nine Turkish people unfortunately did away with that initiative. And the crisis broke out in Turkey's relations with Israel as well as the US. What the path of the crisis will be in the forthcoming period, how it will be defused and what affect it will have on Turkey's foreign policy remain to be seen.

The meeting between Prime Minister Erdoğan and US President Obama was a critical development to assuage that curiosity. As far as the reports are concerned, some decisions geared to break the crisis were taken at the Erdoğan-Obama meeting. The substance of the talks indicates that both countries are desirous of maintaining their support of one another. While Turkey wants the continuation of intelligence information sharing with the US against PKK terrorism and insists on the three-party mechanism among Turkey-US-Iraq being rendered more effective, the US asks Turkey to embark upon more constructive initiatives about its relations with Israel and Iran's nuclear programme and agrees, at the same time, to abide by Turkey's demands concerning intelligence sharing.

What we can understand from the results of the Erdoğan-Obama talk is that the model partnership between Turkey and the US is to be upheld because the two countries' bilateral ties are not confirmed to Palestine and Iran alone. Turkey's powerful position in world and regional economy, its key role in certain regional issues such as Iraq, Afghanistan and the Caucasus, its strategic membership of NATO and candidacy to join the EU have made the two countries inter-dependent. Because this mutual dependence is structural and deep, Turkey-US relations cannot be expected to plunge in a constant crisis, and what's more, given today's conditions, this fact is not likely to change very easily.

There is one last development we have to take note of. There took place in the Belgian capital Brussels a secretive meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoğlu and Israeli Trade Minister Eliezer. It may well be possible the two convened in order to launch an initiative to defuse the crisis between their countries. According to what the papers and other media organs say, Turkey's expectations from Israel regarding the Mavi Marmara incident are still there. How this crisis will unfold is contingent to a great extent on Israel's attitude and the result of the Obama-Netanyahu meeting in Washington on July 7.